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solar forecast
``` Do a "finger daily@xi.uleth.ca" and you'll get a fascinating daily forecast of the weather on the sun. I've enclosed a sample.
[xi.uleth.ca] Login name: daily In real life: Daily Summary Finger Directory: /userfiles/others/oler/solar/daily Shell: /bin/true Never logged in. Plan: /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
07 SEPTEMBER, 1994
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(Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)
SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 SEPTEMBER, 1994
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!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 250, 09/07/94 10.7 FLUX=092 90-AVG=080 SSN=089 BKI=1445 4333 BAI=022 BGND-XRAY=A8.1 FLU1=1.9E+06 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=3445 5344 PAI=028 BOU-DEV=009,050,057,115,058,025,027,035 DEV-AVG=047 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B8.4 @ 2058UT XRAY-MIN= A6.8 @ 2325UT XRAY-AVG= B1.2 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 1355UT NEUTN-MIN= -004% @ 1655UT NEUTN-AVG= -1.1% PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 0920UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1810UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55218NT @ 2235UT BOUTF-MIN=55172NT @ 1748UT BOUTF-AVG=55203NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1859UT GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1352UT G6-AVG=+084,+029,-008 FLUXFCST=STD:092,090,090;SESC:092,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,020,020/035,025,025 KFCST=3555 5443 2346 5432 27DAY-AP=000,016 27DAY-KP=3333 3333 3442 3333 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS=**SWEEP:TYPEII@2052UTC !!END-DATA!!
NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 SEP 94 was 28.0. The Full Kp Indices for 06 SEP 94 are: 1+ 3+ 3- 5o 3+ 3- 2o 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 06 SEP 94 are: 5 18 11 46 18 12 9 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 07 SEP is: 5.4E+07
SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
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Solar activity was very low. Only minor B-class activity was noted this period. The largest region visible on the disk, Region 7773 (S08W31), continues its slow decay while Region 7776 (S08E16) continues to slowly grow. Also indicating slow growth is Region 7774 (N11W22).
Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low with Regions 7773 and 7776 showing the best chance of C-class and possible M-class activity.
STD: Overall electron fluence at greater than 2 MeV was near-normal to moderate levels. Another full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image has been appended to this report.
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. A period of minor to severe storm conditions was reached from 07/09-18Z. The GT 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels.
Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active for the next three days. Periods of storm conditions should be expected. Activity is in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
Event probabilities 08 sep-10 sep
Class M 15/15/15 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green
Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 sep-10 sep
A. Middle Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/10
B. High Latitudes Active 30/25/25 Minor Storm 25/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 15/15/10
HF propagation conditions were degraded today in response to increased levels of geomagnetic and auroral activity. Equatorward expansion of the auroral ovals resulted in greater signal degradation than normal for many middle-latitude night crossing circuits. Increased fading, absorption, and multipathing were observed. Similar degraded conditions are expected throughout the next 24 to 48 hours before signals should begin improving.
COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
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REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z SEPTEMBER
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NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7771 N06W57 123 0070 HSX 01 001 ALPHA 7773 S08W31 097 0290 EKO 13 015 BETA 7774 N11W22 088 0080 CSO 09 013 BETA 7776 S08E16 050 0270 CHO 08 009 BETA 7777 S12W50 116 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7775 N16E09 057 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 SEPTEMBER TO 10 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7769 N10 311
LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 SEPTEMBER, 1994
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BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1435 1435 1436 140
POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 SEPTEMBER, 1994
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BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED
INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
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ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 02 N55W00 N13W54 N33W60 N61W03 096 ISO POS 036 10830A 03 S03E49 S06E44 S03E40 N04E46 023 ISO NEG 001 10830A
SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
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Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 06 Sep: 0022 0059 0109 C7.8 1F 7773 S08W08 0337 0341 0343 B2.9 SF 7773 S08W08 0418 0432 0441 B6.7 SF 7773 S08W18 0628 0633 0637 C1.5 SF 7776 S07E41 0921 0925 0929 B2.1 1154 1159 1202 B3.3 SF 7773 S09W18 1216 1221 1227 B7.2 SF 7776 S07E43 1229 1229 1231 SF 7776 S08E42 1436 1441 1446 B3.9 1620 1624 1633 B2.2 2123 2128 2131 B1.6
REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
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C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7773: 1 0 0 3 1 0 0 0 004 (36.4) Region 7776: 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 003 (27.3) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 004 (36.4)
Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray.
EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
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Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 06 Sep: 0022 0059 0109 C7.8 1F 7773 S08W08 III,Continuum 0337 0341 0343 B2.9 SF 7773 S08W08 III 0418 0432 0441 B6.7 SF 7773 S08W18 III 0628 0633 0637 C1.5 SF 7776 S07E41 III 1620 1624 1633 B2.2 III
NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.
Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:
II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.
SPECIAL INSERT: YOHKOH FULL-DISK X-RAY IMAGE
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07 September 1994, 03:00 UTC
North
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South
KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:
[space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @
Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes. Get "showasc.zip" from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens. Remove all but the image data before typing "showasc filename".
End of Daily Report ```
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