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papers by Andrew Odlyzko
``` [Andrew Odlyzko at AT&T is one of those people who gets labeled a contrarian, which simply means that his views are contrary to the views of the people who do the labeling. The irritating thing is that his arguments are generally backed up with facts and make obvious- now-that-you-think-about-it connections that refuse to go away. See, for example, his argument that the simplicity of the Internet is much over-hyped -- if, that is, you include all of the complex effort that is invested daily by zillions of site maintainers, effort that is not required by phone-system "sites". The point is not to defend the phone system -- I don't think even AT&T does that -- but to move back from a gadget focus to a system focus, which is always a good idea.]
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Date: Wed, 8 Jul 1998 18:29:03 -0400 (EDT)
From: Andrew Odlyzko
Five papers on data networks have just been posted on the Web at
Hopefully they will be of interest to you. They are:
1. The economics of the Internet: Utility, utilization, pricing, and Quality of Service
2. Smart and stupid networks; Why the Internet is like Microsoft
3. Data networks are lightly utilized, and will stay that way
4. The size and growth rate of the Internet (with Kerry Coffman)
5. Dynamic behavior of differential pricing and Quality of Service options for the Internet (with Peter Fishburn)
All are available in PostScript (.ps) and Adobe Acrobat (.pdf) formats. Comments and especially corrections would be greatly appreciated.
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Andrew Odlyzko amo@research.att.com AT&T Labs - Research voice: 973-360-8410 http://www.research.att.com/~amo fax: 973-360-8178
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Text abstracts:
The economics of the Internet: Utility, utilization, pricing, and Quality of Service
Andrew Odlyzko
Abstract
Can high quality be provided economically for all transmissions on the Internet? Current work assumes that it cannot, and concentrates on providing differentiated service levels. However, an examination of patterns of use and economics of data networks suggests that providing enough bandwidth for uniformly high quality transmission may be practical. If this turns out not to be possible, only the simplest schemes that require minimal involvement by end users and network administrators are likely to be accepted. On the other hand, there are substantial inefficiencies in the current data networks, inefficiencies that can be alleviated even without complicated pricing or network engineering systems.
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Smart and stupid networks: Why the Internet is like Microsoft
Andrew Odlyzko
Abstract
Is the Internet growing primarily because it is a dumb network, one that simply delivers packets from one point to another? If that were so, we surely would not need huge and rapidly growing ranks of network professionals. A more detailed look suggests that the Internet is succeeding largely for the same reasons that led the PC to dominate the mainframe, and are responsible for the success of Microsoft. The Internet offers an irresistible bargain to a crucial constituency, namely developers, while managing to conceal the burden it places on users.
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Data networks are lightly utilized, and will stay that way
Andrew Odlyzko
Abstract
The popular press often extolls packet networks as much more efficient than switched voice networks in utilizing transmission lines. This impression is reinforced by the delays experienced on the Internet and the famous graphs for traffic patterns through the major exchange points on the Internet, which suggest that networks are running at full capacity. This paper shows the popular impression is incorrect; data networks are very lightly utilized compared to the telephone network. Even the backbones of the Internet are run at lower fractions (10% to 15%) of their capacity than the switched voice network (which operates at over 30% of capacity on average). Private line networks are utilized far less intensively (at 3% to 5%). Further, this situation is likely to persisi. The low utilization of data networks compared to voice phone networks is not a symptom of waste. It comes from different patterns of use, lumpy capacity of transmission facilities, and the high growth rate of the industry.
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The size and growth rate of the Internet
K. G. Coffman and A. M. Odlyzko
Abstract
The public Internet is still far smaller, in both capacity and traffic, than the switched voice network. The private line networks are considerably larger in aggregate capacity than the Internet. They are about as large as the voice network in the U.S., but carry less traffic. On the other hand, the growth rate of traffic on the public Internet, while lower than is often cited, is still about 100% per year, much higher than for other types of traffic. Hence, if present growth trends continue, data traffic in the U.S. will overtake voice traffic around the year 2002 and will be dominated by the Internet.
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Dynamic behavior of differential pricing and Quality of Service options for the Internet
Peter C. Fishburn and Andrew M. Odlyzko
Abstract
The simple model on which the Internet has operated, with all packets treated equally, and charges only for access links to the network, has contributed to its explosive growth. However, dissatisfaction with the delays and losses in transmission, and the requirements of new services such as IP telephony, have stimulated the development of methods for providing Quality of Service (QoS), and this will make the Internet more complicated. Differential quality will also force differential pricing, and this will further increase the complexity of the system.
The solution of simply putting in more capacity is widely regarded as impractical. However, it appears that we are about to enter a period of rapidly declining transmission costs. The implications of such an environment are explored by considering models with two types of demands for data transport, differing in sensitivity to congestion. Three network configurations are considered: (1) with separate networks for the two types of traffic, (2) with a single network that provides uniformly high QoS, and (3) with a single physical network that provides differential QoS. The best solution depends on the assumptions made about demand and technological progress. However, we show that the provision of uniformly high QoS to all traffic is often best in the long run. Even when it is not the least expensive, the additional costs it imposes are usually not large, and in a dynamic environment of rapid growth in traffic and decreasing prices may well be worth paying to attain the simplicity of a single network that treats all packets equally and has a simple charging mechanism. ```
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